Are we close? Or, will it be beyond our lifetime?
Do you imagine an AGI as being able to do something like this (without any prior knowledge or explicitly coded support):
- Be taught the rules of chess verbally with a small number of visually demonstrated examples
- Play a handful of games
- Explain the rules correctly to someone else, or another instance of itself, in a similar way
This seems like it would fall under "any cognitive task" but feels much farther off than 2029 to me. If I had to bet I'd say it wasn't even achievable without being explicitly coded for at some level.
Do you expect a radical transformation of the civilization after the development of AGI? Like massive automation or space colonization or something of that kind?